Monday, April 07, 2003

Russian military intel update: April 5 War in Iraq
'The overall situation in the central region of Iraq is characterized by gradual reduction of the coalition activity and change to active defense. But extraordinary dispersion of the ground forces, their fragmentation (the biggest group now contains up to 12 thousand troops) create advantageous preconditions for Iraqi counter-attacks, but the air superiority of the coalition severely complicate such projects. If, due to weather conditions, the coalition forces lose their air support, it may have very dramatic consequences.'

The impression given by the Russian reports is that the Americans are continuing their strategy of a very rapid advance direct to Baghdad, bypassing towns and other defensive strongpoints, hoping to achieve the collapse of the Iraqi regime. But the Iraqi resistance is tougher and better organised than expected and the Americans simply have insufficient forces to reduce garrisons in their rear or to mount an effective assault on Bahgdad itself.

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