Thursday, December 30, 2004

Sample Chapter for Deffeyes, K.S.: Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage.: "In 1956, the geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.1 Almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's analysis. The controversy raged until 1970, when the U.S. production of crude oil started to fall. Hubbert was right.

"Around 1995, several analysts began applying Hubbert's method to world oil production, and most of them estimate that the peak year for world oil will be between 2004 and 2008. These analyses were reported in some of the most widely circulated sources: Nature, Science, and Scientific American. None of our political leaders seem to be paying attention. If the predictions are correct, there will be enormous effects on the world economy."

If Hubbert predicted the peak of US oil production as long ago as 1956, why did it take so long for it to be verified? If US oil production peaked in 1971, why did it take another 20 years for geologists to make a prediction of the global peak? If a prediction for a global peak was made in 1995 that the global peak was for somewhere between 2004-2008, why did no one pay any attention?

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