Wednesday, April 02, 2003

S African human shields back from Iraq with message (via RW)
'Abie Dawjee, the leader of the group called the Iraqi Action Committee, said every Iraqi he had spoken to was passionate about fighting the invaders. "We spoke freely to Iraqis from all walks of life, in the streets, in hospitals, in country areas and in houses, and without exception the message was the same: the invaders must get out, we do not want you to liberate us," Mr Dawjee told reporters at Johannesburg International Airport.

'Asked about the perception of Iraqi civilans toward President Saddam Hussein, Mr Dawjee said the strong resistance against the coalition forces reflected the anger of the Iraqi people over what had been done to them since the first Gulf war in 1991. "The indiscriminate bombing in the first Gulf war that destroyed so many civilian targets, the US-led sanctions that have lead to the deaths of 1.3 million Iraqis and the dropping of depleted-uranium bombs in the final days of the last war which gave so many Iraqis cancer, have caused tremendous anger." '

Latest must-read Russian military intel update: War in Iraq 31 March
Vastly more detailed and up to date account of the actual military situation than anything found anywhere in the mass and corporate media.

'Russian military analysts are advising the Iraqi military command against excessive optimism. There is no question that the US “blitzkrieg” failed to take control of Iraq and to destroy its army. It is clear that the Americans got bogged down in Iraq and the military campaign hit a snag. However, the Iraqi command is now in danger of underestimating the enemy. For now there is no reason to question the resolve of the Americans and their determination to reach the set goal – complete occupation of Iraq.'

'Russian military analysts believe that the critical for the US duration of the war would be over 90 days provided that during that time the coalition will sustain over 1,000 killed. Under such circumstances a serious political crisis in the US and in the world will be unavoidable.'

If this military analysis is correct, then it provides a focus for the peace movement. The peace movement needs to gear up in the next few weeks to apply maximum pressure on UKUSA at the most propitious time to force them to accept a ceasefire and negotiated political settlement.

Bad War
Worthwhile discussion of how the war is bad and the bad news is seeping through the American media despite the dominant tone of flag-waving 'patriotism'. However,

'There’s a general tone of denial in the establishment US press about the incredible fact of what we are in fact witnessing – imperialist gangsters gone wild. Their global wilding is being aided and abetted by a morally spineless press.'

Gerard Henderson attacks Chomsky and other critics of US policy
A feeble by attempt by Henderson, who writes like a paid up member of the Washington/Israel lobby:

'Power and Terror (there is also a book of the same name) depicts the US as one of the worst terrorist states in the world. Indeed, Chomsky spends little time in the documentary criticising any nation except the US and its allies. In the Middle East, for example, it is Israel and Turkey which are singled out for criticism, not Libya or Syria.'

Chomsky has pointed out time and again that it is morally appropriate and in fact a responsibility for a citizen to criticise the crimes of one's own country, as it is here that some change or influence might be made. Attacking Genghis Khan, Hitler, or Stalin might be worthy in a scholarly sense, but it doesnt help the current situation and in fact is a typical device of propaganda, to focus laser-like on the official enemies while ignoring completely one's own crimes. Chomsky's focus has always been the foreign policy of his own country and its allies that are supported and enabled by the US. Hence the criticism of Israel and Turkey, which is very much to the point. His book on Palestine (FT) is a devastating expose of the criminal and dangerous US/Israeli policy; while in recent years he has been nearly alone in highlighting US support for Turkish crimes against the Kurds and the silence/complicity of 'intellectuals' just like Henderson.

Chomsky has described Washington as the world capital of terrorism and a mountain of evidence over more than 50 years forces one to accept the conclusion. As he says, the best way for us to stop terrorism is to stop participating in it.

Question and answer with Chomsky on Iraq War
'Right now, what we should hope for is termination of a destructive war, vast reparations for the victims (or if that is too much to ask, at least aid, which they can use in their own way to reconstruct their society), and measures to increase the likelihood that repressive and brutal regimes will be contained and internally undermined. There's no simple formula that applies for all cases.'

Tuesday, April 01, 2003

Russian military intel update: 30 March
Must-read report provides a grim picture of exhaustion, mechanical and supply difficulties of coalition forces; combined with better than expected equipment levels and determination of Iraqi defenders. However, Russian analysts believe coalition forces are planning a major attack soon, followed by a wide Baghdad encircling movement by about April 15.

Bombs and Biscuits: UKUSA propaganda offensive
'The well-being of an entire population is now the legal responsibility of the Americans and the British, as Kofi Annan reminded them, and the prospect of them being able to meet it is fanciful. No, the real hearts and minds the Americans and the British are hoping to win by this grotesque charade are those of their domestic audiences at home, and then the global audience watching this war. The aim is to reassure supporters and dampen protests.'

'This is where the future becomes truly frightful because there's no way back, and if America and Britain are not going to be welcomed and loved on the streets of Basra and Baghdad, they will make themselves feared instead. Here, the logic of war takes grip and choices narrow. This war has to be won, and in the end the US will use any means necessary to do so - dragging its British ally with it into a bloody mess.'

The war doesnt have to be 'won', it has to be stopped. Ceasefire and political settlement at the UN Security Council. Why cant people understand that? A ceasefire will be a huge political climbdown for Bush, Blair, Howard and the neo-conservative cabal, but that is all to the good, if they can be forced into it. The pressure should be applied now and relentlessly increased. In my opinion the progressive media underreports the diplomatic front on this war. There are plenty of statements from world leaders such as Chirac, Putin, and many others on the need to stop or end the war and they should be prominently reported, slowly creating an atmosphere where a ceasefire becomes a possibility or a necessity. Too many people in the peace or progressive movements assume that now the war has been started nothing can be done except wring our hands at the horror.

WALL OF SHAME - pictures of casualties
There has been an debate in Australia as to whether it is appropriate to publish pictures of casualties. Casualties are the truth and the truth must be published. Suppression of publication works in favour of the warmaking powers.

Mubarak Says Iraq War Will Produce "100 bin Ladens"
'Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said on Monday the U.S.-led war on Iraq would produce "one hundred new bin Ladens", driving more Muslims to anti-Western militancy.'

US Troops Kill Ten Women, Kids at Iraqi Checkpoint: no warning shots
'"It was the most horrible thing I've ever seen, and I hope I never see it again," Sgt. Mario Manzano, 26, an Army medic with Bravo Company of the division's 3rd Battalion, 15th Infantry Regiment, said later in an interview. He said one of the wounded women sat in the vehicle holding the mangled bodies of two of her children. "She didn't want to get out of the car," he said.'

John Major Dismisses war goal
'Former [UK] Prime Minister John Major says the imposition of a Western-style democracy In Iraq would be nearly impossible. "It is going to be very difficult to install a government. The thought of a grand coalition between Sunnis, Shias and Kurds is so improbable as to be dismissed as absurd almost from the outset," Major said.'

Howard must be challenged on the question of democracy in Iraq. We can expect nothing from him but evasion and waffle, nevertheless his feet must be held to the fire on this as on other issues.

Australia scales down Navy contribution - War on Iraq
This is reported to be a reduction of 300 to the Australian war commitment. It is another sign that the Howard Government is backing away from the war. But it is not good enough. The pressure must be sustained on the government to continue scaling down Australia's commitment until ALL Australian troops are withdrawn.

Nothing that Howard says on this issue can be believed. Whether it is participating in the war, or not participating, nothing he says can be believed. What matters is the actual deployment of location of Australian forces. If they are deployed to the Gulf, then they are taking part in the war. But if they are withdrawn to Australia, then we are not participating.

Baghdad assault 'delayed for up to 40 days'
'THE United States-led advance on Baghdad appeared to have been placed firmly on hold yesterday after frontline units reported orders to settle into their positions for the next 35 to 40 days.'

This of course directly contradicts other reports that a major US offensive against the Medina division south of Baghdad is being planned to be launched in the next few days.. so who knows, perhaps it is all disinformation. The political imperative is for a rapid victory, but as the realisation dawns that the 'political victory' such as it may have been has already been lost, and as Rumsfield steadily loses credibility in Washington and in the Pentagon, the military preference for time, an extended air campaign, reinforcements, and overwhelming firepower may carry the day.

Robin Cook's anti-war article in the Sunday Mirror
'I have already had my fill of this bloody and unnecessary war. I want our troops home and I want them home before more of them are killed.'

When challenged about this statement by a UK cabinet minister Cook is reported to have issued a 'clarification' that he hopes the coalition wins. That's a weak position to adopt that opens himself to shots even from the likes of Alexander Downer. Rumsfield has hinted the US did not need the UK forces, so leave them to it. How long is the war expected to last, are British forces expected to participate in the siege/assault of Baghdad, are they expected to participate in the pacification and occupation of Iraq, are they expected to participate in military action against Syria, Iran or North Korea? They will simply have to be brought home, the sooner the better, and opponents of the war should be preparing the political ground for the withdrawal.

Shiite cleric orders: No Uprising
'Ayatollah Muhammad Bakr al-Hakim has sent instructions to his supporters and secret cells in Basra, Najaf, Karbala and other southern Iraqi cities not to start an uprising or support the American-led coalition in any way'

'"Foreign troops must leave Iraq at the earliest possible time," al-Hakim said at a news conference in Tehran last week. "The Iraqi people will resist by all available means, including armed struggle, if these foreign forces turn into occupiers."'

US command hints at timing of major Baghdad attack - days away
'The climactic battle for Baghdad, with lead elements of the US army and marine forces directly engaging Republican Guard units surrounding the capital, could be just days away, as military officials indicated on Monday they did not intend to wait for reinforcements to arrive before launching an all-out attack.'

'There has been pressure, particularly among some army officers, to wait for reinforcements from the 4th Infantry Division, which is beginning to unload its equipment in Kuwait but is still at least two weeks away from joining the fight. But an official at US Central Command said such concerns have largely been set aside by the senior leadership. "Is there any intention to wait for the 4th Infantry Division? No," said the Centcom official... "When the battlefield conditions are right, the coalition forces will engage, in a big way," said a US military spokesman. "When it happens, you'll know it."'

Military/media lies
A listing of false stories that have been sent through the media in the first days of the war.

Reaction to suicide bomber who killed 4 US soldiers
'The cry has gone up from the American camp that suicide bombings are the acts of terrorists, therefore this attack proves, beyond all doubt, the long-argued American case that Iraq is a terrorist state. Thus Washington was right all along to invade, and the sooner Saddam Hussein can be put out of business, the safer the world will be. There is none so blind as they that won’t see. This ignorant and deeply stupid analysis just about sums up the level of what seems to pass for serious thought in George W. Bush’s White House.'

Russian politicians reaction to the war
'The United States is mistaken if it thinks that Russia is not willing to stand up to Washington. "We are reacting to the Iraq campaign as we promised to react. We are a large and powerful country, which no one can isolate [economically], and we should behave in an appropriate way," Rogozin said. He blamed Russian politicians for sending the United States the wrong signals in recent years, creating the impression in Washington that Russia is weak and "an international beggar" instead of making it clear "what mood dominates here."'

'The Iraqi war will be prolonged and will last at least several months, including the initial military phase followed by a partisan-warfare period of pacification'

'"This war is not Russia's war, and Russia must distance itself from it, including from the issue of the postwar political order in Iraq." It is in Russia's interests, however, if the war "is long and problematic for those who unleashed it." Lukin said this might beget another "Vietnam syndrome" in the United States and "prevent it from launching further wars."'

TV reporter Arnett sacked telling it as it is
'Celebrated news correspondent Peter Arnett, famed for his coverage of the Vietnam War and the first Gulf war, has been sacked by NBC after he suggested on Iraqi television that the US war plan had failed... In his controversial comments broadcast during the weekend by Iraqi TV Arnett said "The first war plan has just failed because of Iraqi resistance. Clearly the American war planners misjudged the determination of the Iraqi forces," he told Iraqi journalists.'