Europe faces huge test over Iraq - historically France and Germany buckle under
"Chancellor Gerhard Schröder says Germany “will not take part in a military intervention in Iraq,“ although it is less clear whether his government will oppose war when the UN Security Council votes. France also offers resolute ambiguity, threatening, but not promising, a veto. Yet Washington remains skeptical that its critics are serious, and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has indicated that he expects Paris to give in - as it always does... Over the years, Washington has learned that it can browbeat most any nation into submission on most any issue, but the coming showdown over Iraq offers Europe another chance.

"France must do more than bluster. Only by vetoing any UN war resolution can France hope to stop the Bush administration's war plans. And only by making a commitment and sticking to it will Paris be able to encourage China and Russia to join it. A veto by two or three of the Security Council's permanent members, supported by the negative votes of Germany and perhaps other states, would demonstrate a sobering lack of international support. If the chancellor [Schroeder] believes Washington's Iraq policy to be misguided, even dangerous, he must say so - and vote against any Security Council resolution, bar the use of German troops in any fashion, and deny Washington use of German airspace and bases.

"The credibility of European and other critics of Washington is at stake. Giving in will feed Washington's conviction that it can impose its will without constraint. The Iraq process will inevitably be repeated, only with Iran or North Korea as the next target."

This vigourous analysis was published in a German newspaper. However, as Powell has already signalled, the US will not risk a veto of a war resolution, they will instead bring forward something milder, such as that Iraq is in material breach, and continue their argument that a specific war resolution is not necessary; also, it is not so much UN diplomacy that has any chance of stopping war as popular opposition around the world, including the US itself. But it is true that if France and Germany want to make a historic decision to oppose US hegemony, they will not be able to finesse it. A firm committment would have to be made and followed through determinedly. Otherwise they will inevitably buckle under sustained US pressure, which unfortunately is the most likely outcome. It is asking too much of politicians, unless they are strongly supported by as much as 80 or 90% of their populations, to make a principled stand against aggression.

Europe faces huge test over Iraq - historically France and Germany buckle under
"Chancellor Gerhard Schröder says Germany “will not take part in a military intervention in Iraq,“ although it is less clear whether his government will oppose war when the UN Security Council votes. France also offers resolute ambiguity, threatening, but not promising, a veto. Yet Washington remains skeptical that its critics are serious, and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has indicated that he expects Paris to give in - as it always does... Over the years, Washington has learned that it can browbeat most any nation into submission on most any issue, but the coming showdown over Iraq offers Europe another chance.

"France must do more than bluster. Only by vetoing any UN war resolution can France hope to stop the Bush administration's war plans. And only by making a commitment and sticking to it will Paris be able to encourage China and Russia to join it. A veto by two or three of the Security Council's permanent members, supported by the negative votes of Germany and perhaps other states, would demonstrate a sobering lack of international support. If the chancellor [Schroeder] believes Washington's Iraq policy to be misguided, even dangerous, he must say so - and vote against any Security Council resolution, bar the use of German troops in any fashion, and deny Washington use of German airspace and bases.

"The credibility of European and other critics of Washington is at stake. Giving in will feed Washington's conviction that it can impose its will without constraint. The Iraq process will inevitably be repeated, only with Iran or North Korea as the next target."

This vigourous analysis was published in a German newspaper. However, as Powell has already signalled, the US will not risk a veto of a war resolution, they will instead bring forward something milder, such as that Iraq is in material breach, and continue their argument that a specific war resolution is not necessary; also, it is not so much UN diplomacy that has any chance of stopping war as popular opposition around the world, including the US itself. But it is true that if France and Germany want to make a historic decision to oppose US hegemony, they will not be able to finesse it. A firm committment would have to be made and followed through determinedly. Otherwise they will inevitably buckle under sustained US pressure, which unfortunately is the most likely outcome. It is asking too much of politicians, unless they are strongly supported by as much as 80 or 90% of their populations, to make a principled stand against aggression.