Showing posts with label Geonomics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Geonomics. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Massive Disconnect between Neo-classical economics and Global Reality

RWER:

Climate scientists are divided over whether “the tipping point”, the point at which positive feedbacks make climate change accelerate and irreversible, thereby endangering the survival of the human species, has been reached....

Meanwhile the World Bank forecasts that by the end of the century global economic output will have risen almost tenfold.


Evidently NCE counts output as a plus but the consequent destruction of the environment in which we live does not count as a loss. It's like chopping down trees on Easter Island. As they approach the last stands, timber production, profit and success have never been higher. But no thought is given to what happens when all the trees are gone.

We need to change NOW the measures of production and economic growth by a full incorporation of environmental damage.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Modern Day Marxism

Chomsky:

[Marx] offered lots of insights into how society works, and he was an extremely good analyst of the current events of the day. I think he would take it for granted that elites are basically Marxist - they believe in class analysis, they believe in class struggle, and in a really business-run society like the United States, the business elites are deeply committed to class struggle and are engaged in it all the time. And they understand. They're instinctive Marxists; they don't have to read it.


Warren Buffett:

“There’s class warfare, all right,” Mr. Buffett said, “but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”


What on earth could he mean?

Wikipedia:

Americans have the highest income inequality in the rich world and over the past 20–30 years Americans have also experienced the greatest increase in income inequality among rich nations. The more detailed the data we can use to observe this change, the more skewed the change appears to be... the majority of large gains are indeed at the top of the distribution.


Neoliberalism, all that b-s about privatization, deregulation, economic reform etc etc has in fact been nothing but a plot to reestablish high and growing income inequality. Congratulations, well done. You've succeeded. Can we have a revolution now?

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Randall Wray on USS Titanic QEII

link:

Maintaining the dollar's international appeal also requires imposition of the rule of law in the US. Currently, the fraud perpetrated by the biggest banks is far worse than anything the Russian kleptocrats and mafia combined could possibly imagine. The US is in the grips of the worst scandals in world history, with the financial sector no longer constrained by anything that would be recognizable as lawful practice. And that is the biggest threat to the dollar as international reserve currency. Unless the top banks are closed, with their management jailed, there really is no hope for the US dollar or for its economy.


Friday, November 12, 2010

21st Century Jubilee

Steve Keen:

We should write the debt off, bankrupt the banks, nationalize the financial system, and start all over again.

We need a twenty-first century jubilee.

[We’re going into] a never-ending depression unless we repudiate the debt, which never should have been extended in the first place.

If we keep the parasitic banking sector alive, the economy dies. We have to kill the parasites and give a chance to the real economy to thrive once more and stop the financial [crooks] doing what they did this time around ever again.


Chifley was right. We need to nationalize the banks. But the time to do it is when they become bankrupt in a depression, not twenty years later when they have recovered their strength. The coming financial crash in Australia is an historic opportunity to achieve this.

The provision of finance and credit in the economy is an essential public utility - it cannot be left to the inherently corrupt and inefficient private sector based on some delusional cargo-cult ideology of "the free market always lands the goods".

The issue becomes clearer by the day and maybe will come to a head. The Giant Vampire Squid of the financial sector (like some monster out of the imagination of Clark Ashton Smith) needs to be ripped off the head and neck of the real economy where it has been feasting and poisoning, and stamped repeatedly into the ground until it is completely lifeless.

But Steve Keen does not say what Michael Hudson does: that rents and surpluses also need to be nationalized or socialized because those are the income streams that become pledged to banks as interest in the financialized economy. Without doing that, we will be on the treadmill again to another crisis 18 years down the track. This is a far more radical and permanent solution than what Keen proposes, which looks almost mild in comparison in spite of its shocking directness.

Monday, April 19, 2010

Housing Bubble

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18733.html

Way back in 1983 Fred Harrison published his book "The Power in the Land" which relied on Homer Hoyt's 18-yr cycle theory to predict a land boom peaking in 1989 and a recession thereafter.

Back in the day we Georgists were amused to see the prediction come true and thought the bubble was a big one too. Anyone could also predict that the next peak would be 2007 or therabouts.

But look at this latest boom! No wonder the Economist called it the "biggest bubble in world history".

It's been Michael Hudson perhaps more than anyone else who has emphasized that a big land boom means huge amounts of money have been lent with land or property as collateral, which means in a bust all the banks are bust. In a financialised economy all available rents or supluses are pledged to banks as interest.

The financial sector is a giant vampire squid, sucking the life out of the economy and the workforce. Here again Hudson has rightly emphasized that 'debts that can't be paid, won't be paid'; that we need a 'Jubilee'.

However, the financial sector owns and controls the world and won't get it's fangs off it until there is some kind of revolution or popular rebellion.

Neo-liberalism will also have to be destroyed. The core of this dogma is to privatize, de-regulate, de-fund, de-tax and de-stroy.

Privatize: hand over land and resources and everthing in the nature of a natural monopoly to the private sector to allow them to privatize the economic surplus.

De-regulate: remove barriers to the raising of profits.

De-fund: the public sector and in particular the essential government role of infrastructure. Infrastructure will be provided by the miracle of market forces! Just like some sort of latter-day cargo cult. All you need to do is set up on some level ground somewhere wooden carvings of Adam Smith and Hayek, and all the good things anyone could desire will come down!

De-tax: lower or remove altogether taxation on wealth, property and capital.

De-stroy: the obvious outcome of it all, although a small class of the very rich have gotten smaller and even richer, which is their objective.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

The Lost Tradition of Biblical Debt Cancellations, by Michael Hudson, PhD.



Thursday, August 27, 2009

Michael Hudson answers questions from Icelanders

Icelandic blog opens comments for questions and answers from Dr Hudson.

I think there are three or four elements which make Dr. Hudson the best commentator on the Global Financial Crisis, and as he has been described on amazon.com by one reviewer, the best economist in the world right now:

* He was a balance of payments economist for a major Wall St bank. This gives a key insight into how international payments and finance work, particularly from the point of view of the hegemonic power (see his book Super Imperialism).

* A healthy Marxist background, so that he understands that exploitation is inherent in the system, and that the disposal of the economic surplus is the key.

* A classical researcher, with an interest in debt and jubilee. This is a core problem just as relevant today as in the time of Babylon and Sumeria.

* A Georgist input, an appreciation that site rent is by far the greater part of the economic surplus, and that the alternative to taxing the rent is the pledging of it as interest to banks as they go about constructing their global financial ponzi schemes.

This last element is I believe Dr Hudson's secret weapon, which puts the last piece in the puzzle, as there is a total of about 3 of us worldwide who at all take the ideas of Henry George seriously.

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Michael Hudson in Cuba, 2000

GLOBALIZED ECONOMY AND RECAPTURE OF RENT
by Dr. Michael Hudson, New York, NY

Everyone says that globalization is inevitable. But what kind of globalization are we going to have? Whose globalization? Can we still influence what kind of globalization the world will have?

GLOBALIZED ECONOMY AND RECAPTURE OF RENT

A century ago, Marx supported the globalization of his day - colonization - to the extent that it would break down the institutions of backwardness in Asia, the Near East, Latin America and the Far East.

Marx saw globalization even in its British colonialist form as a catalyst for industrialization, and an organization of the labor force along economically modern lines. But this is not what is occurring today. In retrospect, Marx was overly optimistic.

Today's globalization does not replicate the economic relations of the core. It is creating something else - something that nobody spoke of a century ago. Today's globalization is much like the Enclosure movement in England from the 16th through 18th centuries.

The enclosers carved out the land for themselves, displacing labor from the land and its traditional means of support, and herding it into the cities. The result was inequality, not equality. But the result also provided the labor for industrialization.

From the 16th to the 19th centuries, the rural exodus into cities in England, France and other countries formed the foundations for industrial capitalism. However, although today's globalization is bringing manufactures to many developing countries, and also goes hand in hand with a great rural exodus to huge overgrown cities, it is in many ways a relapse back into pre-capitalist economic forms. It is precapitalist in the sense that what the large global corporations - and the stockholders and bankers behind them - what they seek is rent and interest.

Many of you here criticize the drive for profitsmade by multinational firms. But if you look at the statistics, you will find that these firms do not make a profit - or rather, they take all their profit in a few small islands throughout the world. These islands are called offshore banking centers. They are tax havens, extra-legal and criminal havens, which do not levy any income tax. Multinational firms in the developing countries, in Europe and North America give the statistical appearance of not earning any profits at all. This means that any country that tries to make a profit-sharing agreement with a foreign investor runs the risk of ending up with half of almost nothing.

Rather, global companies pay out their would-be profits as interest to the financiers who put up the money for corporate raiders and investors and other corporations to buy out these multinational firms. They also pretend that their profits are expenses on insurance and other non-production charges.

Sometimes, high technology IS spread to the developing countries. But their labor does not benefit. Wage rates remain low, even in high-technology industries such as computers and pharmaceuticals. Part of the problem is technological. The leading core economies concentrate research and development in the United States and Europe. But most of the problem is financial. Industry throughout the world has been taken over by the financial sector, including corporate raiders.

Most of you here focus on the exploitation of cheap low-wage labor in the developing countries. But what the global corporations want from these countries is NOT primarily their labor. They are not primarily interested in exploiting surplus value. What global investors want is the land, along with other natural resources such as mineral rights, and natural monopolies, that is, public utilities.

They want the railroads and airline systems now in place, created largely by governments running deeply into foreign debt. Global investors want the telephone and communications monopolies, the TV stations - and the electromagnetic spectrum that goes with it - electrical power monopolies, oil and gas. They want the monopoly rights possessed by these industries - monopoly rights that led them to be organized as public enterprises in the first place - to buy it at distress prices, and then to privatize labor's social security savings to bid up prices for shares in these companies. They seek an outlet for savings in the United States.

Most of all, they want the land and real estate. For even in highly industrialized economies such as the United States and Japan, it is the land that is the largest asset. And the most valuable land is urban land - the value of urban real estate in New York City alone exceeds the depreciated value of all the industrial machinery and equipment in the United States.

In sum, global investors do not want to bring development to the developing countries, any more than they brought it to Russia. What they want is the capital that already is in place.

Their objective and historical role is not to create new capital. They want to levy monopoly charges on labor, not to employ it. They want to downsize their labor force, not exploit it to obtain surplus value.

Privatization thus goes hand in hand with globalization. A century ago, Marx believed that globalization and international investment would modernize host-country economies, and lead naturally to increase government co-ordination of national planning. But governments are now being forced out of the picture.

The world economy and its financial systems are being planned - but not by governments. It is being planned not by elected officials, nor by industrial engineers, but by financial engineers. The word "technocrat" no longer means industrial engineer, but financial engineering - by unelected officials in the Ministry of Finance, Treasury and Central Bank of country after country. The term "technocrat" means non-democratic, that is, oligarchic. Indeed, the word "democracy" itself has come to be abused as a synonym for "pro-American." As such, "democracy" now means "oligarchy."

Their interest is not to create new investment and employment, but to strip assets and downsize the labor force. This is a kind of exploitation that Marx did not emphasize. The global corporations want to collect rent, to pay out monopoly profits - and most of all, to get capital gains. They want a stock-market boom in the shares of hitherto government enterprises.

They can make more money out of stock-market speculation in the shares of these companies than they can make by employing the labor of these sectors. Indeed, they squeeze out more profit - and hence, increase the price of their shares - by firing workers and downsizing the labor force than they can make by employing more labor and exploiting it directly in the way described by Marx.

While they cut back wages, they force workers to place their pension funds and social security savings in the stock market, to inflate a financial bubble.

My paper addresses the topic of whether this process is reversible.

Today's corporate globalists claim that now that they have privatized public monopolies, land and mineral rights, the process is irreversible. As the Americans say, they have stolen the public domain fair and square. They have forced governments into debt, raided their currencies, and the IMF and world Bank have told governments to sell off their public domain.

I want to suggest to you a counter-move, that does not involve the political trauma of re-nationalization. There is one Achilles heel in the globalists' strategy, an option that remains open to governments. This option is a tax on the rental income - the "unearned income" - of land, natural resources and monopoly takings.

This tax is not an income tax. It is not a tax on labor and the wages it earns. It is not a tax on industrial investment, on factories or the material capital equipment that all economies want to encourage, Cuba as well. It is a tax on the "free lunch," the "free ride" that the buyers of natural resources seek to exploit. This is the "free lunch" that neoliberal economists such as Milton Friedman pretend does not exist.

Jose Marti, in one of his essays (reprinted in Vol.22 of his Collected Works in the Havana 1966 edition, p.124), endorsed this tax as put forth by his fellow New York City journalist Henry George. Marti wrote that "reform of the actual conditions of labour, transformation of land into public property and conversion of all types of taxes into a single tax on occupied land, is a doctrine that has not been well received by the powerful corporations that today control virtually all the productive wealth, or by that part of the Catholic clergy that lives close to the rich, and with their support."

This is precisely our message: a rent-tax on land, natural resources and monopoly earnings, as calculated before payment of interest, insurance and other parasitic non-production charges. This tax is legal, as long as it affects domestic and international investors equally. It will recapture for the public sector the rent - the free lunch, and hence the capital gains - that the privatizers thought they had stolen, fair and square, and irreversibly.

This recapture of the flow of rent and monopoly earnings, the income created by social progress and the public domain, is so large that governments need not tax labor, or even industry. The country that does this will give itself a great competitive advantage in international trade and investment.

My colleague, Ted Gwartney, will tell you of our work in Russia, where the American globalists have had their own way and created a model of how not to develop.

The task is not only to attack globalization, it is to show the way out, to propose a policy alternative, a counter-strategy. There is such a thing as market socialism. Governments can shape the market to encourage productive investment, and tax away what is parasitic. This is just what they were doing - or what they were supposed to be doing - prior to the Thatcher-Reagan-Pinochet revolution by the neoliberal Chicago Boys.

The kind of globalization we have seen since 1980 has been primarily parasitic. It is like a tumor, a tapeworm on the economic organism, not the organism itself.

This gives a new meaning to "host country economies"and "host country government". But host-country governments can recapture the economic rents that global financial investors seek. This will leave parasitic investors holding an empty bag. And it is all legal. It recovers for society what the global investors believe they have taken away, while leaving wages untaxed, and also the earnings of legitimate, non-parasitic industry.

In fact, an income tax will not capture real estate rents or financial interest charges. The global firms do not declare profits to tax. They have a number of stratagems. The first stratagem is to borrow against their earnings and super-profits - that is, monopoly rents and real estate rents - and to pay out these revenues as interest.

A second stratagem is for the accountants of multinational firms to levy fictitious charges for insurance, reinsurance and shipping, as well as for management and for inter-corporate supplies such as parts, machinery and so forth.

GLOBALIZATION AND THE FOREIGN DEBT LEVER

Privatization has been a voluntary pre-bankruptcy sale by governments. Most of the money was used (1) to pay foreign debt, and (2) to subsidize capital flight (as well as to pay currency speculators). To repay these debts, whose proceeds have been
wasted rather than productively invested, governments have been told to pay the price and sell off the assets that rightly belong to the people. The resulting foreign debt
leads to permanent currency depreciation by host countries.

The oligarchs that run most countries are in favor of foreign debt. First, the more money governments borrow, the less they need to tax their own real estate and large
rent-taking corporations. Second, the currency depreciation that results from repaying foreign debt has the effect of lowering the wages of labor. Let me explain why.

Capital equipment has the same price throughout the world. It is dollarized. Fuels
and raw materials have the same worldwide dollar price. Computers and transport equipment. Debt financing also is dollarized. All that is left to be affected by currency depreciation is labor's wages, and land rents. But even for real estate, in the large commercial centers land prices are now dollarized. The way to counter unionization is by running up so much foreign debt that the process of repaying it devalues labor's wages.

Third, foreign debt is a lever by which countries can be controlled, and forced to sell their public resources to foreign investors. For example, Korea and
Japan, as well as Russia. An alternative to the World Bank and IMF neo-usury
institutions are needed. Such a body was created in 1929 to deal with the reparations that defeated Germany was obliged to pay. This was the Young Plan. It limited debt
service to the capacity to pay. (I have described the details in my book Super Imperialism, which has been translated into Spanish.)

Today, debtor countries are being treated as losers in a war. It is an international class war, the final mop-up stage of the class war. But new tactics can change the outcome of this economic war. That is what revolutionary economics is all about. - - - - - -



Here’s Kris Feder’s report on Ted’s and my visit to Cuba:
From: Kris Feder
Date: 8 March 2000
Re: Cuba Report

A. THE RSF MISSION IN CUBA

At the request of the Executive Committee, I accompanied Ted Gwartney and Michael Hudson to Havana, Cuba for the Second International Meeting of Economists on Globalization and Development Problems, 24-29 January 2000. The conference was jointly sponsored by the Association of Latin American and Caribbean Economists (AEALC) and the National Association of Cuban Economists (ANEC).

According to my letter of invitation from Dr. Roberto Verrier Castro, Vice President of AEALC and President of ANEC, "The purpose of the Meeting is to promote discussions on current tendencies in World Economy in the context of Globalization, from the most
diverse theoretical and analytical point of view, essential requirement in creating alternatives that contribute in solving existing problems. We are inviting to this International Meeting the most distinguished personalities in the whole world in the field of Economic Science, and 50 papers will be presented, including those from International Organizations." (sic.)

It seemed to me that there was less diversity of opinion expressed than the rhetoric of Roberto Castro (and of Fidel Castro as well) suggests--see below. Also, while delegates were present from 51 countries, most participants were, not surprisingly, Latin American.

Michael and Ted gave their talks on Tuesday, the second day of the conference, going together to the podium. Well! What a stir they created! Their talk stood out among the rest, for several reasons. Of course, as US citizens, they had first of all to prove that Cuba's mighty enemy did not commission us to infiltrate the conference. At this they succeeded, on account of both the content and style of their message. Their ideas plainly resonated with the audience.

Their mood was upbeat and passionate, their arguments were clear and straightforward, and their credentials were evident to all. Michael's close knowledge of Latin American issues and of the writings of Cuban national hero Jose Marti (a follower of George ), as well as his socialist roots, gave him terrific credibility. Ted's explanation of the remarkable initiative in Russia riveted everyone's attention, too. Listeners must
have gotten the impression that RSF missionaries are experienced, activist, practical, and respected in high places. And it must have been apparent that the Georgist philosophy is at cross-purposes with the Dominant Neoliberal Ideology.

The dynamic duo stood alone in respecting the 20-minute time limit, despite the fact that two speakers were given the place of one. For this, they won an extra round of grateful applause.

Most importantly, while other speakers reiterated a dreary litany of complaints about the evils of "neoliberalism" and the painful consequences of globalization for the Third World, Ted and Michael offered a concrete solution--one that addressed all the main dimensions of the crisis under the guidance of a single principle; one that could be implemented by national governments with or without the blessing of the international community.

It seemed to me that most listeners were able to follow the main arguments promoting land value taxation, particularly with reference to the problems of debt, dependency, and maldistribution that were the focus of the conference.

In a comment from the floor during the subsequent discussion period, Professor Molinas of Cuba said, "I highly assess this proposal," not only for Cuba (which is attempting to build socialism despite the economic blockade), but also for all Third World countries. He noted that Marti had admired Henry George and called him the most important social scientist. He mentioned the Physiocratic proposal to tax rent, and urged a study of how to implement it today. Molinas said that, though it is true
that the market would play a fundamental role under a land tax system, the tax would be progressive, and we need not fear the market with the Georgist system.

Unfortunately, Fidel was not in attendance that day, distracted as he was by the Elian Gonzales mess.

After they spoke, Ted and Michael were deluged with requests for copies of their papers and other information about our ideas. They collected names and contact information from many interested economists and students. Ted gave out RSF business cards and website addresses.

Michael gave a television interview on Wednesday, with Ted present. It was fairly impromptu, and I missed it. I was listening to the talks in the conference room and didn't realize what was happening out in the hall.

On Thursday, I observed an interview with Ted and Michael by reporters from the Cuban periodical "Bohemia--Magazine of the Cuban Family." We were assured that it is the Cuban equivalent of Time magazine, and that Fidel Castro is a regular reader.

Also on Thursday, we had a breakfast meeting with four economists who would like us to join an email discussion group, with the intention of convening an international meeting in Argentina to discuss our views. Our translator was Miguel J. Alfonso Martinez, Cuba's Minister of External Relations. He hopes to arrange a meeting for Michael and associates with Cuban officials. The most talkative member of the group, Dr. Orlando Caputo of Universidad Arcis, Chile, enjoyed a fascinating conversation
with Michael, who just happened to have had extensive experience with the Chilean economy. The two others were from Mexico and Chile, respectively.

Michael was also invited to come to the University of Havana to hold seminars with their professors and to relate our ideas.

Whether our message sinks deeper or is forgotten depends largely on how vigorously these opportunities are pursued.

B. WHAT CONFERENCE MEMBERS SAID

Roberto Verrier Castro gave the opening remarks on Monday, with Fidel in attendance. He stated the intention to continue the work of the conference with an annual forum. He set a tone that was to be continued almost without interruption: World economic policy is at a dead end.

Dollarization and all so-called "neoliberal" policies are tools for the annexation of developing countries by Western capitalist imperialists. The Elian Gonzales incident was a talking point for many participants. Roberto spoke of his "kidnapping" (Fidel would say on Friday: "brutal kidnapping") by Americans, and observed with irony that Elian would have received better medical care back in Cuba.

Esther Aguilera Morato, Secretary General of AEALC and Director of Cuba's Economic Planning Institute, was next to address the conference (and moderator of the first session). She said that the goal of the conference was to identify trends in the world economy. It was Esther who, in July 1999, had invited Michael, Ted, and Ramsey Clark to present their ideas at the January conference. Ted's report on that first trip to meet government leaders in Cuba says that Esther was "eager for us to describe how a land-charge system could serve to protect the nation's natural resources from being relinquished to foreigners."

During the conference, the evidence of oppression and maldistribution
mounted high. Many speakers dwelled on the details of the economic
situations faced historically and currently by their respective countries.
There was a great deal of chest-pounding an d anti-US rhetoric. Lofty
goals for a better future were enumerated and elaborated.

There was less in the way of useful analysis. Still less in the way of
practical policy recommendations. Probably the best speech at the plenary
session was given by Jan Kregel, senior economist at UNCTAD and one
of the Levy Institute’s favorite economists, as many of his papers are
published by them. He is a friend of Michael’s, who had just given a
joint presentation with him two weeks earlier at a Venice conference
sponsored by the Norwegian oil fund and organized by Michael’s “reality
economics” group in Oslo. A week earlier, Ted and Michael had met
with him and he and his wife had searched through Jose Marti’s works to
find appropriate quotations for their joint talk.

In his speech, Kregel pointed out that recent UN discussions have stopped
focusing on development, and have concentrated on privatization without
examining the developmental consequences of privatizing hitherto public
assets. But apart from this talk, most prescriptions were vague and
referred to institutions and policies over which a small Third World nation
has little control: more democratic international financial institutions;
internationally recognized minimum labor standards; regional cooperation
and multilateralism; Latin American integration.

Here are some of the other ideas expressed by various conference speakers:

* The distribution of the world's resources and population is vastly
unequal. There is a dual society: The privileged, and the excluded.

* Powerful, private industrial groups from Europe, Japan, and especially
the US are seeking to dominate the world, aided by powerful information
technology. They aim to plunder the natural resources of weaker nations.
They are assisted by large banks that are recycling huge sums of money.

* Capitalism corrupts. Capitalism is compatible with slavery.

* Globalization means interdependence. All must obey the dictates of the
market (this is "economicism" or "neoliberalism"). Globalization is a
social, economic, and political rupture. It condemns any difference or
resistance. It makes competition the only moving force in society.
Cultural factors are shunted aside. Thus live in an increasingly homogeneous world.

* The neoliberal philosophy is a "new obscurantism," peddling oppression
under the guise of freedom. I never heard anyone attempt to define
"neoliberalism," or to distinguish it from classical liberalism or other
liberalisms. Perhaps that was because it's a concept so widely shared
among this group that no one imagined there might be delegates unfamiliar
with it. Perhaps, too, it is intended more as an expletive than as a descriptive term.

* Neoliberalism is associated with the policies of Thatcher, Reagan,
Pinochet, and conservatism in general. It is associated with
"neocolonialism" and imperialism. An example is the NATO war against Yugoslavia.

* During the past 15 years of neoliberal globalization, Latin American
poverty and indigence has increased. Cuba intends to be an exception.

* The goals of globalization are privatization and the abolition of collective power.

* The mechanisms of globalization are mainly financial.

* The IMF, the WTO, the OECD, and the World Bank are the four major actors
pirating the earth. They are deciding the future of the earth's
inhabitants with no opposition. The recent protests at the Seattle WTO
conference are heartening.

* Capital flight in Russia, which has wiped out savings there, is due to
inflation and the devaluation of the ruble.

* The UN has dropped development from its agenda. It has come to view
development policies as impediments to globalization, which promises to
bring about wealth convergence. The debt crisis and inflation of the 1970s
are seen as evidence of the failure both of growth policies in less
developed countries and of full-employment policies in more developed
countries. The creation of the IMF at Bretton Woods reflected the
interests of northern industrial countries in perpetuating the
colonization of the Third World. (This from Johns Hopkins economist Jan Kregel.)

* Globalization has indisputable benefits, including improvement in living
standards through the dissemination of technology, the spread of new
ideas, the efficiency gains from exploiting comparative advantages, and
the pressure of competition introduced to local markets.

* But for many, the benefits of globalization are outweighed by the costs.
Costs include exposure of developing countries to external shocks; an
uncertain business environment; increase of social tension on account of
the wedge between the privileged and the marginalized; and costs imposed
on the laboring classes. With regard to the last, while highly skilled
workers are prepared to face the global economy, less skilled workers
cannot adapt well, and often suffer greatly when their jobs disappear.
Also, " everything"--financial assets, technology, capital--is mobile
except for one thing: Workers, who therefore shoulder the cost of the
economic crisis. Capital moves to tax havens and evades taxation; labor
cannot. [An obvious point of entry for Georgists, well exploited by
Michael: land is less mobile even than labor, in fact, perfectly immobile.
Land is a tax base from which no light-footed multinational corporation can escape.]

* The "Tobin tax," an international levy placing a uniform rate of 0.1% on
hard currency transactions (proposed by James Tobin), should be enacted to
dissuade short-term financial speculation. The revenues should be used to
assist the world's needy children (providing potable water, education, and
family planning).

* The globalized economy is unstable, despite the retreat of inflation in
the US. Countries raise interest rates in the attempt to stabilize their
own currencies, discouraging investment. But they cannot escape the forces
of globalization, so they resort to using US dollars as currency (Cuba,
for example). However, many countries have nothing to sell in exchange for
dollars, so their debt accumulates to impossible heights. High interest
rates further raise the cost of public debts. Neither dollarization n or
taxes on the circulation of capital will prevent external shocks. The
"free market" does not exist. For sustainable growth we need a new economic model.

* Eric Toussaint of Belgium ("Belgica") focused on the Third World debt
crisis, and proposed a debt cancellation.

C. WHAT MICHAEL HUDSON SAID

I will try here to summarize some of the points made by Michael Hudson in
his conference presentation:

Marx had supported globalization because it fostered industrialization,
modernization, organization of the labor force, and government planning.
But the globalization phenomenon today is of a different character.
Economic planning is carried out by financial engineers, not governments.
Today, globalization is parasitic. It is much like the Enclosure Movement
in England, when peasants were evicted from the land and migrated to
cities, where they constituted a low-wage labor force. Then and now, the
result of land grabbing is increasing inequality. Globalization today
constitutes a relapse into pre-capitalist forms: Multinational
corporations are seeking rents, not taxable profits. They borrow against
their earnings and employ other stratagems to convert taxable income into
nontaxable cost. Any profits are taken in small island tax havens that
levy no income tax. Hence, countries that enter into profit-sharing
agreements with such corporations end up with little or nothing.

Many observers believe that what multinationals are after is low-wage
labor. But that is not what they want most. They do not want to bring
development to developing countries. Rather, they want to take over the
monopoly rights to public enterprises such as oil, gas, utilities, and
communications as they are privatized. Above all, they want the land.

The global corporations believe that privatization is irreversible. But
developing countries have one option still open to them: To tax the rental
income of land, natural resources, and monopoly privileges. This is not a
tax on labor, income, or capital formation. It is a charge on the
economic surplus. It diverts the surplus from private to public ownership.
The tax is legal if applied uniformly, and involves no traumatic
confiscation of land titles. It obviates the need to levy taxes on labor
and capita l. It was powerfully endorsed by Cuban journalist Jose Marti.

The oligarchies that control many governments favor foreign debt. It
allows them to hold down tax rates on real estate and corporate income, it
engenders currency depreciation that lowers real wages in debtor
countries, and it forces countries to sell off public assets to foreign
investors at distress prices.

New tactics are needed to change the course of the international class war.

D. THE BOHEMIA INTERVIEW

The interview with Bohemia magazine was conducted by two journalists and a
photographer. I observed, while Michael held the floor with Ted
interjecting occasional comments. Here is my summary of what was said:

MH: Marxists have an advantage in understanding capitalism insofar as they
know there is an economic surplus. That is why Wall Street hired Michael
Hudson to analyze the economics of capitalism.

Q: It is possible to apply the Georgist proposals?

MH: In Marx's day, the economic surplus was taken primarily in the form of
profit. Today, in the age of the income tax, investors avoid taxation by
taking the surplus as interest and rent, declaring little or no net
income. But Cuba has the opportunity to capture for public uses the great
rent surplus yielded by its rich farmland, nickel mines, beaches, and
urban areas. The Cuban people, as owners of the territory of Cuba, can
collect this value with taxes levied on the rental value of land and
natural resources. They can rent or lease properties to domestic and
foreign developers. Ted and associates stand ready to assist in developing
a land value map for Cuba.

Q: This tax proposal seems antithetical to the dominant philosophy today.

MH: Milton Friedman admits that the land tax is the only efficient tax. If
you tax buildings, industry, or labor, you will have less of those things.
The land will always be there, no matter how heavily it is taxed.

Q: Governments have no capital. Rich people do.

MH: Cuba has a unique opportunity. The land of Cuba belongs to the Cuban
people. In the US and elsewhere, where land is privatized, the rent
surplus has been pledged as collateral for debt. But Cuba has retained
public ownership of the land, and it has not made the mistakes of Russia.
Cuba could become one of the lowest-cost producers in the world. Cuba
could offer international investors what no one else can. So rich are its
natural resources, it need not tax labor or industry. It can leave
investors a fair return on their capital costs while the Cuban government
collects the land rents on behalf of the Cuban people. In partnerships
with foreign investors, Cuba could contribute the land (say, a beachfront
hotel site) while the foreign company contributes the capital. Over time,
the hotel will depreciate, but the land will grow ever m ore valuable as
development proceeds nearby. Cuba need not surrender to private
corporations the free ride from rising land values.

The unlimited optimism now infecting the developed world stems from the
belief that the US has an unlimited opportunity to exploit other nations.
Cuba need not submit to foreign exploitation.

Q: What about the speculative bubble on Wall Street? Is inflation due to follow?

MH: There is no inflation in the US economy. The genius of finance
capitalism is to contain inflation within the land, stock, and bond
markets. There is deflation in real wages. Alan Greenspan has said that US
workers are insecure and are afraid to ask for higher wages. He says that
corporate managers need more stock options and higher salaries every year
to be more productive--but workers need less every year to be more
productive. Companies downsize, yet produce more. Measured employment
rates are high, but more workers are forced to work part time, and they
increasingly turn to piecework as operations are "outsourced."

We need a new world bank that will finance independence, not dependency.
International reserves should be invested in real capital in developing countries.

Decades ago, Castro urged a cancellation of Third World debt. This should
be the foundation of international reform. Meanwhile, Cuba can develop
itself without relinquishing its independence. Others will emulate it.

The 1850s - 1870s were exciting decades for the development of economic
thought. Marxist socialism evolved in Europe. In the US there developed an
economic analysis of technology, and also of the way in which America was
getting rich by land grabbing and debt creation. Henry George's "Progress
and Poverty" is one of the greatest books of that era. Jose Marti, a
journalist in New York City, said that Henry George was the Darwin of
economics. Marti popularized land tax ideas throughout Latin America. The
ideas of Marti are more important today than at any time in the past century.


Michael, Ted, and colleagues have tried to warn Russia of how the West
seeks to exploit it. But the World Bank offered money to Russia on
condition that they don't adopt our ideas. Russia took the cash.

The political environment in Cuba is very different from that of Russia.
We see honesty, not corruption, in public office. All that is needed is
the knowledge of how to retain Cuban wealth for the Cuban people.

Cuba is proud of its health care system. We want to help the Cuban
economic body also achieve robust health.

The US is becoming a dual economy, like Latin America. To acquire wealth
sufficient for independence, one must have the good fortune to inherit.
The growth of debt weakens the world economy. We hope to see industrial
capitalism overcome financial capitalism, but the prospects are poor.

Regarding dollarization, the US doesn't say so publicly, but it would love
to give Latin America paper in return for its real assets. Only a quarter
of US currency now circulates in the US; the rest circulates in Russia and
other nations, or is used to finance criminal activity.

Q: What is your current research?

MH: There are two parts: One part is archaeological research on the long
economic dynamics of civilization, with focus on land and debt. The other
is statistical research on the asset/debt structure of the US and other major economies.

RSF has funded research on land values and land value taxation.

Q: What about Schumpeter's theory of creative destruction?

MH: The idea was that technological innovation would cut costs, making
older technology obsolete. This idea was central to the thinking of Henry
Carey and others in the US during the 1850s. Marx said that if there were
any alternative to classical economics, it would be that of Carey. Marx
argued that employment in innovative, capital-creating industries would
continually expand the demand for labor. Marx controverted the
underconsumption theories of today.

The crisis of capitalism will not come from industrial capitalism as Marx
predicted, but by the stifling of the industrial sector by the rent
takers. The developed world will fall back into the pre-capitalist
problems of usury and rent.

We hope to meet with Cuban officials to develop our policy recommendations.

E. WHAT TED GWARTNEY SAID

Ted Gwartney had initially planned to offer a general outline of Georgist
philosophy. As the three of us discussed strategy, however, we concluded
that the standard Georgist analysis of tax incidence and efficiency might
seem abstract, foreign, and incomprehensible to a Latin American audience
that is steeped in socialist philosophy. The Georgist proposal as
enunciated by George himself referred principally to the context of
industrialized market economies. But the economists attending this
conference tended to be deeply uneasy about the reliability of the price
system in the allocation of resources and distribution of the product. So
Ted chose to focus more on the Russia initiative and other practical
applications of our philosophy. Michael would speak first, and would
offer a theoretical explanation of the land tax proposal that would be
tied directly to the conference themes of dependency, debt, globalization,
and distribution. Once Michael had shown the desirability of the land tax
for Latin America, Ted would demonstrate its feasibility. Michael would
then return to the podium to drive home the central points.

Ted's comments were brief but compelling. He explained how RSF directors
and associates had worked to educate Russian leaders about the function of
rent in a market economy. He mentioned his own work as an assessor,
helping to improve the quality of land assessments here and there
throughout the world. He explained the benefits of Georgist public finance
in the briefest and simplest terms, while pre-empting any thought that our
program is mere utopian idealism.

F. WHAT FIDEL SAID

Fidel Castro was in attendance on the morning of the first day of the
conference and again throughout the last day. Mostly he listened, rarely
interjecting a comment. On Friday evening, however, before the final
wrap-up, he addressed the delegates in an apparently spontaneous two-hour
monologue that he had undoubtedly trotted out hundreds of times before.
His central message was that Cuba would continue to go its own way in
spite of the globalization of the world economy and in spite of the
punitive economic blockade imposed by the US. The US is the very symbol
of evil and oppression. The brutal kidnapping of a little boy is
characteristic American behavior. Cuba is proud to continue the
Revolution. So long as the Cuban people manage to cling to life, no matter
how miserable life becomes, they are winning the war of good against evil.
Cuba is a last little stand of freedom in a hostile, rapacious world.
Witness the present forum: Nowhere else on earth, certainly not in the US,
could such a diverse range o f opinions be freely expressed and openly debated.

I could not resist the impression that Cuba's entire national identity is
defined by its enmity toward the US. If the US were to end the blockade
and normalize relations with Cuba, what would Cubans have left to live for? To suffer for?

Ted, Michael and I all agreed that the best chance for Cuba to adopt our
reform would occur after Castro's reign has ended. Castro's so-called
revolution has long been frozen in suspended animation. For instance,
Castro will not entertain the prospect of diversifying the sugar economy
despite the precipitous drop in world sugar prices--because sugar
agriculture has been fundamental to the cultural and social fabric of
rural Cuba for centuries, ever since the plantations were worked by
slaves. A change now would damage the sturdy Cuban character!

Regarding the possibilities of an opening to our ideas, a friend of Michael’s
(Bob Stone, a professor at Long Island University, and head of the Radical
Philosophy Association which sponsors frequent meetings in Cuba) had
put us in touch with a dissident who had
been expelled from the Communist Party and fired from his job teaching
philosophy, in retaliation for his views that agriculture should be based on
co-ops rather than on state-owned collective farms. He urged a more market-
oriented allocation of resources in place of the present exploitative
state-oriented structures. Our discussion made it clear that for the time being,
Cuban policy was set almost uniquely by Castro. The middle and lower levels
of the bureaucracy do not have much initiative left. It seems that everyone is
simply waiting for Castro to pass on for a discussion of new ideas to take
place. When it comes, it is unlikely to come from the existing party
bureaucracy. There may be the kind of intellectual vertigo that has occurred
in Russia since 1990. This is both a limitation for the time being, and an
opportunity to get our ideas into circulation for the time when a real policy
debate is possible. Our common impression was that Fortunately, there are
educators and ranking members of the political establishment who recognize
the limitations of Castro's worldview and who
are willing, even eager, to hear about the Georgist alternative.
Kris Feder

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Henry George Has Been Proven Right

John Lanchester has a useful article in plain English in the LRB on the 'global financial crisis'.

At one point he makes a statement that nearly everyone recognises is correct but the full significance of which I dont think has been understood:

What links all these companies – and all the other companies and institutions around the world which have been felled by the credit crunch, from the Icelandic banks Glitnir and Landsbanki, the Belgian bank Fortis, the Irish bank Anglo Irish, Northern Rock which started it all, and all the other institutions that are currently in trouble – is that gigantic holes have appeared on the left-hand side of their balance sheets, where assets are listed. Those assets are for the most part linked in one way or another to the collapse in property prices in the US and elsewhere.


In other words, land speculation (the land boom and bust) is the cause of financial panics and crises and the subsequent general economic depression, as George argued more than 100 years ago.

Lanchester point out that banks by their nature have very large balance sheets and small equity compared to other businesses. (Is this the same as saying they are highly leveraged institutions?) It does not take much for them to become insolvent. But land busts typically see land values crash by 20, 30, 40 percent or more. In other words under a system of private property in land where money is loaned with land value as collateral the banking system is a disaster waiting to happen.

Friday, May 22, 2009

The Collapse of the Neoliberal Model

The Collapse of the Neoliberal Model
Where Russia Went Wrong

By MICHAEL HUDSON

Last week Izvestiya published an interview with former Premier Yevgeny Primakov, now president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry. (Johnson’s Russia List published a translation on May 8). The discussion centered on a universal problem – what China and other Asian countries, as well as OPEC and Europe should do with the export surpluses and proceeds mounting up in their central banks from mortgaging or selling off their real estate and industry. Or to put matters in retrospect, what should they have done to avoid the neoliberal monetarist ideology that governments should do nothing at all with these surpluses, not even use them to fuel economic growth.

If U.S. diplomats had their way, countries would simply let their foreign exchange reserves accumulate in the form of loans to the United States, in the form of Treasury bonds and other securities. Mr. Primakov has long opposed what his interviewer called “the fetishization of the Stabilization Fund – our beloved ‘piggy bank.’” Urging that it be spent on “primary needs,” to buy tangible capital goods, undertake infrastructure investment and finance imports to rebuild Russia’s dismantled manufacturing sector, he explained, “I was always opposed to having the Stabilization Fund considered something saved for an emergency. Money needs to be spent inside the country. Naturally not all of it. Some part should certainly be kept as a reserve.” But it was Vladimir Putin’s own “initiative to divide the Stabilization Fund into the Reserve Fund and the Fund for Well-Being. The latter was to be used to develop the economy and for social needs. It is too bad that they did not get to it in time.”

Ever since the Asian financial crisis of 1997, countries that have built up foreign exchange reserves have found themselves targets of global raiders. The tactic has been to sell a currency short, that is, to promise to deliver a few hundred million (or nowadays a few billion dollars) of it to a buyer (usually the central bank) near the current price, and then drive down the exchange rate by selling. The central bank tries in vain to absorb the selling wave, until finally its reserves are exhausted and the currency depreciates. This is how George Soros broke the Bank of England – and what he denies having done in Malaysia during the 1997 crisis.

Under Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohammed, Malaysia protected itself by not making its currency available for foreign speculators to buy and cover their short-sale position. But most other countries have passively built up reserves in an attempt to outspend potential raiders. Today, however, underlying trends are using up these reserves. The global financial crisis has ended the real estate bubble that enabled many countries to cover their trade deficits by selling off their real estate or simply taking out foreign-currency mortgages against it. The Baltics and other post-Soviet countries in particular have been financing their trade deficits by fostering a property bubble that has led real estate owners to borrow mortgage credit from Western banks. In the absence of putting in place a viable domestic banking system, Scandinavian, Austrian and other Western banks are the only institutions able to create credit. Now that the global real estate bubble has burst, this foreign exchange credit is no longer forthcoming. The financial End Time has arrived. Rather than facing the new state of affairs – chronic trade deficits are now over-layered with heavy foreign-debt service. Countries that have built up foreign reserves are running them down.

Many countries are trying to delay the Day of Judgment by borrowing from the IMF, dissipating the proceeds by subsidizing capital flight by investors and speculators who can see that exchange rates for chronic trade-deficit countries are about to plunge steeply. Russia has joined in expending its foreign-exchange reserves to stabilize the ruble in the face of capital flight and foreign speculative selling.

In retrospect this appears to have been inevitable, and indeed was widely foreseen by critics of the neoliberal Washington Consensus. The reserves built up during the oil-price run-up last year and the recent boom in minerals prices are being spent without having used the proceeds to develop its industry so as to replace imports and develop export markets for what used to be a high-technology economy prior to the Yeltsin “reforms” (that is, dismantling of industry). Russia continued to rely almost exclusively on raw materials and oil exports. “In our country,” explained Mr. Primakov, “40% of GDP was created and is created through raw material exports. The share of industrial enterprises engaged in development and introduction of new technologies barely comes to 10%.” The problem is that having given away its mineral resources and other public enterprises to insiders and their cronies, Russia has relied on what they choose to leave in the country from their exports and sale of shares in their companies. “The prolonged refusal to inject the capital being built up into the real economy and its direct investment in American treasury securities instead of its use inside the country to diversify the economy. … As a result, Russia will most likely come out of the recession in the second echelon – after the developed countries.”

The alternative, Mr. Primakov said, would have been to use the Stabilization Fund “to switch the economy to the innovation track and for its restructuring. ‘Patching the holes does not help for long.’” But he the then-minister of economics, German Gref, fought off attempts “to cannibalize the Stabilization Fund.” Under the kleptocracy the money was left to be stolen.

The problem is where to go from here. Neoliberal “monetarist” ideology conjures up the threat of inflation to deter public spending. This IMF and World Bank propaganda blocked Russia from investing in industry during the Yeltsin disaster of the mid-1990s. “Fear of inflation,” Mr. Primakov explained, “was named as the main reason that huge amounts of money lay idle. They said that inflation would soar if what had been built up began to be spent. At one of the representative conferences, I asked: ‘What kind of inflation can there be in building roads? The work would just spur on production of concrete, cement, and metal ...’ But our financial experts have a monetarist view of inflation. They are afraid of releasing an additional money supply into circulation. But in reality inflation rises much more strongly from that fact that we have colossal monopolization.” Trade dependency leads the ruble’s exchange rate to weaken, raising the price of imports and thus aggravating the inflation – precisely the opposite of what Washington Consensus orthodoxy insists.

I myself have heard Scandinavian and other European officials make this argument in almost the same words, and it has persuaded many Third World governments to do nothing with their raw-materials export proceeds but “save for a rainy day,” not promote domestic self-sufficiency in food and consumer goods. The argument seems maddeningly stupid, because it pretends that all government spending is inherently inflationary, adding to the spending stream without producing any production to absorb it. The practical effect is to block countries from growing in the way that the United States and other developed nations have done – by investing in infrastructure and other capital formation, with the government providing basic infrastructure at cost or even freely (as in the case of roads) so as to minimize the cost of living and doing business. Instead of having investment in place to show for the foreign exchange earned by exporting raw materials (and selling off ownership of national assets), countries that follow this policy are now seeing their reserves drained rapidly. And as far as government spending is concerned, the economic collapse is increasing public budget deficits after all!

Contrast this behavior with Pres. Obama’s February 17 economic stimulus plan for the United States. When the Izvestiya interviewer asked Mr. Primakov what he thought about it, he noted that: “In America investments in ‘intellect’ have been increased – in science, progressive technologies, and education, and expenditures for medicine are rising. ... Doesn’t it seem to you that our package of anti-crisis measures is less ambitious? … This law should be considered a plan of investment related to the American economy and society entering the 21st century and a new technological platform of competitiveness. That is why expenditures for science have been increased. The same thing, undoubtedly, with human capital.”

But that is not the Russian strategy today, Mr. Primakov complained. Russia has been living in the short run. “The TPP (Chamber of Commerce and Industry) conducted a poll in 720 firms. Only a third of the managers said that they associate getting out of the crisis with producing new output. The rest are counting on staff cutbacks. If the ministries are given the assignment of reducing expenditures at their discretion, the first thing they sacrifice is scientific research and experimental design development. However, research and development should be classified as protected articles of any budget.”

So much for the free-market policy of automatic stabilizers and do-nothing government policy, leaving choice in the hands of the nation’s financial oligarchs. The situation calls for structural change, coordinated by the government. “If a plane is having trouble, the autopilot cannot handle an unusual situation. Only the personal skills of the pilot can save the ship. It is similar with the economy. Autopilot does not work in extreme conditions. … Self-regulation of the economy disappears as a factor.”

When asked about the oligarchs keeping their funds abroad rather than investing them in domestic industry, Mr. Primakov replied that Russian officials did not “take into account that banks’ interests do not coincide with the interests of the real sector of the economy. … It should have been explained that after receiving state support, in using it banks no longer [should] act as commercial structures but as agents of the state. It should have been watched to make sure that the state capital was not commingled with the banks’ other assets in common accounts but was marked off with a red line. But that was not done. Probably some people were lobbying for the banks’ interests at that point. And the bankers hurriedly began to convert the rubles into hard currency and export it abroad and build up their capitalization” instead of “extend[ing] credit to the real sector of the economy.” Oversight was done poorly, and Russia did not even use its public funds to finance capital investment. But when it comes to what to do at this late point, Mr. Primakov acknowledged, “Punishing the banks for what happened means destroying them.”

The problem is how to restructure the financial system to make it serve the objectives of industrial growth rather than merely facilitating capital flight. Throughout the world financial interests have taken control of government and used neoliberal policies to promote their own gain-seeking – financial gains without industrialization or agricultural self-sufficiency. Betting against one’s own currency is more remunerative than making the effort to invest in capital equipment and develop markets for new output. So unemployment and domestic budget deficits are soaring. The neoliberal failure to distinguish between productive and merely extractive or speculative forms of gain seeking has created a travesty of the kind of wealth creation that Adam Smith described in The Wealth of Nations. The financialization of economies has been decoupled from tangible capital investment to expand employment and productive powers.

Central to any discussion of financialization is the fact that credit creation has been monopolized in the United States and Britain for their own national gain. What makes this interview so relevant is that Mr. Primakov is speaking as head of Russia’s shrunken manufacturing sector. Russia “practically pushes big business outside our borders,” Mr. Primakov noted, “to borrow money from banks there in places where the interest rates are incomparably lower.” Just as the nation was becoming underdeveloped industrially, so it and other post-Soviet economies have failed to create domestic financial institutions to provide the credit that is needed to finance circulation between producers and consumers. As a result, these countries are simply fooling themselves to imagine “that credit can continue to be borrowed abroad ‘for the crisis.’ It is not out of the question that for the first time in 10 years, the state itself will even go begging for a loan again.” So a byproduct of today’s crisis will be to put the world outside of the creditor nations on rations, as it were.

Mr. Primakov was asked what he thought of Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov’s tracing “the sources of the present Russian crisis [to] the 1990s, when the liberal government permitted the ‘stealing, squandering, and distribution of natural resources and the largest sectors of industry to those who could not support their development.’” He replied that there were many smart managers among the oligarchy’s ranks, but acknowledged that “It is a different question that in buying up enterprises (mainly raw material ones) for a song and obtaining mega-profits, many from the beginning preferred not to raise the efficiency of production, but to skim off the cream. … Why think about some processing of raw materials if they bring in big money anyway in natural form? The state should have entered that niche long ago. To have done everything to make certain that some of the petrodollars were pumped into science-intensive industry.”

Contrasting Russia’s failure to industrialize with that of China and its anticipated 8% economic growth in 2009, Mr. Primakov noted: “China exports ready-made products, while in our country a strong raw material flow was traditional.” Now that Western economies are shrinking, China is “moving a large part of the ready-made goods to the domestic market. At the same time, they are trying to raise the population's solvent demand. On this basis the plants and factories will continue to operate and the economy will work. We cannot do that. If raw materials are moved to the domestic market, consumers of such vast volumes will not be found.” Increasing domestic purchasing power will “merely step up imports.” That is the price that Russia is now paying for having failed to sponsor “structural changes in the economy.”

I have cited these long quotations because they have been made by a man who once had a chance to steer Russia along different lines than the economically suicidal death trap promoted by the Harvard Boys and their Washington Consensus. It is the trap into which the Baltics and other countries have fallen. A decade ago Mr. Primakov proposed an alternative, based on a resource-rent tax to finance Russia’s re-industrialization. The government would have collected the “free lunch” of its raw materials sales proceeds in excess of their low costs of production. Instead of retaining the revenue in the public domain from the decades of capital investment that the Soviet government had made to develop its mineral, oil and gas resources, instead of using it to finance economic modernization, Russia simply gave it away to political insiders and let them sell off shares in these resources to foreign buyers on the cheap. Anatoly Chubais and his Western “free-market” backers promised that giving property to individuals in this way would transform them into forward-looking Western-style industrialists. Instead, it turned them into Westernized finance capitalists.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

The Latest in Junk Economics

The Latest in Junk Economics: Marginalist Panaceas to Today's Structural Problems

by Michael Hudson

It looks like bookstores are about to be swamped this summer and fall by a forest of advice for which publishers gave respectable advances a year ago as the economy was going off the rails. Seeking to minimize the risk of cognitive dissonance, the marketing strategy seems to be to offer advice by well-placed or celebrity insiders on how to recover the kind of free lunch that American pension plans ­ and popular hopes for easy wealth ­have long assumed to be part of the natural law of economic growth, if only it can be better managed. The fantasy that people want to buy is that the happy 1981-2007 era of debt-leveraged price gains for real estate, stocks and bonds can be brought back. But the Bubble Economy was so debt-leveraged that it cannot reasonably be restored. This means that publishers have achieved the marketer¹s dream of planned obsolescence: Readers a year or so from now will have to buy a new slew of books as they feel hungry again from the lack of intellectual protein.

For the time being we are being fed Wall Street defenses of the Bush-Obama (Paulson-Geithner) attempt to re-inflate the bubble by a bailout giveaway that has tripled America's national debt in the hope of getting bank credit (that is, more debt) growing again. The problem is that debt leveraging is what caused our economic collapse. A third of U.S. real estate is now estimated to be in negative equity, with foreclosure rates still rising. So publishers have only a short time frame to sell the current spate of books before people wake up to the fact that attempts to renew the Bubble Economy will make the financial overhead heavier.

In the face of this stultifying financial trend, the book-buying public is being fed appetizers pretending that economic recovery simply requires more 'incentives' (a euphemism for special tax breaks for the rich) to encourage more 'saving,' as if savings automatically finance new capital investment and hiring rather than what really happens: Money is being lent out to create yet more debt owed by the bottom 90 percent to the economy's top 10 percent. Publishers evidently believe that the way to attract readers ­ and certainly to get reviews in t emajor mediam­ is to propose easy
solutions. The theme of most of this year¹s bubble books therefore is how we could have avoided the bubble 'if only's' If only there had been better regulation, for instance.

But to what aim? After blaming Alan Greenspan for playing the role of 'useful idiot' by promoting deregulation and blocking prosecution of financial fraud, most writers trot out the approved panaceas: federal regulation of derivatives (or even banning them altogether), a Tobin tax on securities transactions, closure of offshore banking centers and ending their tax-avoidance stratagems. But no one is going so far as to suggest going to the root of the financial problem by removing the general tax
deductibility of interest that has subsidized debt leveraging, taxing 'capital' gains at the same rate as wages and profits, or closing the notorious tax loopholes for the finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) sectors.

Right-wing publishers are re-warming the usual panaceas such as giving more tax incentives to 'savers' (another euphemism for more giveaways to high finance) and a re-balanced federal budget to avoid 'crowding out' private finance. Wall Street's dream is to privatize Social Security to create yet a new bubble to feed off of. (Fortunately, such proposals failed during the Republican-controlled Bush administration as a result of a reality check in the form of taxpayer outrage after the dot.com bubble burst in 2000.)

What is not heard is a call to finance Social Security and Medicare out of the general budget instead of keeping their funding as a special regressive tax on labor and its employers, available for plunder by Congress to finance tax cuts for the upper wealth brackets. Yet how can America achieve industrial competitiveness in global markets with this pre-saving retirement tax and privatized health insurance, debt-leveraged
housing costs and related personal and corporate debt overhead? The rest of the world provides much lower-cost housing, health care and related costs of employee budgets ­ or simply keeps labor near subsistence levels. This is a major problem with today¹s dreams of a renewed Bubble Economy: They leave out the international dimension.

The latest panacea being offered is to rebuild America's depleted infrastructure. Alas, Wall Street plans to do this Tony Blair-style, by public-private partnerships that incorporate enormous flows of interest payments into the price structure while providing underwriting and management fees to Wall Street. Falling employment and property prices have squeezed public finances so that new infrastructure investment will take the form of installing privatized tollbooths over the economy's most critical access points such as roads and other hitherto public transportation, communications and clean water.

Surprisingly, one does not hear even an echo of calls to restore state and local property taxes to their Progressive Era levels so as to collect the 'free lunch' of land rent and use its gains over time as the main fiscal base. This would hold down land prices (and hence, mortgage debt) by preventing rising location values from being capitalized and paid out as interest to the banks. It would have the additional advantage of shifting the fiscal burden off income and sales (a policy that raises the
price of labor, goods and services). Instead, most reforms today call for
further cutting property taxes to promote more 'wealth creation' in the form of higher debt-leveraged property price inflation. The idea is to leave more rental income to be capitalized into yet larger mortgages and paid out as interest to the financial sector. Instead of housing prices falling and income and sales taxes being reduced, rising site values merely will be paid to the banks, not to the local tax authorities. The latter are forced to shift the fiscal burden onto consumers and business.

The problem is that this new wave of reformist books advocates merely marginal changes to deep structural problems. There are the usual pro forma calls to re-industrialize America, but not to address the financial debt dynamic that has undercut industrial capitalism in this country and abroad. How will these timid 'reforms' look in retrospect a decade from now? The Bush-Obama bailout pretends that banks 'too-big-to-fail' only face a liquidity problem, not a bad debt problem in the face of the economy's widening inability to pay. The reason why past bubbles cannot be recovered is that they have reached their debt limit, not only domestically, but also
the international political limit of global Dollar Hegemony.

What needs to be written about is what the marginalists leave out of account and what academic jargon calls ³exogenous² considerations, which turn out to be what economics really is all about: the debt overhead; financial fraud and crime in general (one of the economy's highest-paying sectors); military spending (a key to the U.S. balance-of-payments deficit and hence to the buildup of central bank dollar reserves throughout the world); the proliferation of unearned income and insider political dealing.

These are the core phenomena that 'free market' idea strippers have relegated to the 'institutionalist' basement of the academic economics curriculum.

For example, the press keeps on parroting the Washington line that Asians 'save' too much, causing them to lend their money to America. But the 'Asians' saving these dollars are the central banks. Individuals and companies save in yuan and yen, not dollars. It is not these domestic savings that China and Japan have placed in U.S. Treasury securities to the tune of $3 trillion. It is America's own spending ­ the trillions of dollars its payments deficit is pumping abroad, in excess of foreign demand for U.S. exports and purchases of U.S. companies, stocks and real estate. This
payments deficit is not the result of U.S. consumers maxing out on their credit cards. What is being downplayed is the military spending that has underlain the U.S. balance-of-payments deficit ever since the Korean War. It is a trend that cannot continue much longer, now that foreign countries are starting to push back.

Inasmuch as China's central bank is now the largest holder of U.S. Government and other dollar securities, it has become the main subsidizer of the U.S. payments deficit ­ and also the domestic U.S. federal budget deficit. Half of the federal budget's discretionary spending is military in character. This places China in the uncomfortable position of being the largest financier of U.S. military adventurism, including U.S. attempts to encircle China and Russia militarily to block their development as rivals over the past fifty years. That is not what China intended, but it is the effect of global dollar hegemony.

Another trend that cannot continue is 'the miracle of compound interest.' It is called a 'miracle' because it seems too good to be true, and it is ­ it cannot really go on for long. Heavily leveraged debts go bad in the end, because they accrue interest charges faster than the economy's ability to pay. Basing national policy on dreams of paying the interest by borrowing money against steadily inflated asset prices has been a nightmare for homebuyers and consumers, as well as for companies targeted by financial raiders who use debt leverage to strip assets for themselves. This policy is
now being applied to public infrastructure into the hands of absentee owners, who will build interest charges into the new service prices they charge, and be allowed to treat these charges as a tax-deductible expense. Banking lobbyists have shaped the tax system in a way that steers new absentee investment into debt rather than equity financing.

The irresponsible cheerleaders applauding a bubble economy as 'wealth creation' (to use one of Alan Greenspan's favorite phrases) would like us, their audience, to believe that they knew that there was a problem all along, but simply could not restrain the economy's 'irrational exuberance' and 'animal spirits.' The idea is to blame the victims ­homeowners forced into debt to afford access to housing, pension-fund savers forced to consign their wage set-asides to money managers for the large Wall Street firms, and companies seeking to stave off corporate raiders by taking 'poison pills' in the form of debts large enough to block their being taken
over. One looks in vain for an honest acknowledgement of how the financial sector turned into a Mafia-style gang more akin to post-Soviet kleptocrat insiders than to Schumpeterian innovators.

The cursorily reformist gaggle of post-bubble tomes assumes that we have reached 'the end of history' as far as big problems are concerned. What is missing is a critique of the big picture­ how Wall Street has financialized the public domain to inaugurate a neo-feudal toll booth economy while privatizing the government itself, headed by the Treasury and Federal Reserve. Left untouched is the story how industrial capitalism has succumbed to an insatiable and unsustainable finance capitalism, whose newest 'final stage' seems to be a zero-sum game of casino capitalism based on derivative
swaps and kindred hedge fund gambling innovations.

What have been lost are the Progressive Era's two great reforms. First, minimizing the economy¹s free lunch of unearned income (e.g., monopolistic privilege and privatization of the public domain in contrast to one's own labor and enterprise) by taxing absentee property rent and asset-price ('capital') gains, keeping natural monopolies in the public domain, and anti-trust regulation. The aim of progressive economic justice was to prevent exploitation ­ e.g., charging more than the technologically necessary costs of production and reasonable profits warranted. This aim had a fortuitous byproduct that made the Progressive Era reforms seem likely to
conquer the world in a Darwinian evolutionary manner: Minimization of the
free lunch enabled economies such as the United States to out-compete others
that didn't enact progressive fiscal and financial policy.

A second Progressive Era aim was to steer the financial sector so as to fund capital formation. Industrial credit was best achieved in Germany and Central Europe in the decades prior to World War I. But the Allied victory led to the dominance of Anglo-American banking practice based on loans against property or income streams already in place. Today's bank credit has become decoupled from capital formation, taking the form mainly of mortgage credit (80%), and loans secured by corporate stock (for mergers, acquisitions and corporate raids) as well as for speculation. The effect is to spur asset-price inflation on credit, in ways that benefit the few at the
expense of the economy at large.

The problem of debt-leveraged asset-price inflation is clearest in the post-Soviet 'Baltic syndrome,' to which Britain's economy is now succumbing. Debts are run up in foreign currency (real estate mortgages in the Baltics, tax-avoidance funds and flight capital in Britain), without exports having any prospect of covering their carrying charges as far as the eye can see. The result is a debt trap ­ chronic austerity for the domestic market, causing lower capital investment and living standards without hope of recovery.

These problems illustrate the extent to which the world economy as a whole has pursued the wrong course since World War I. This long detour has been facilitated by the failure of socialism to provide a viable alternative. Although Russia's bureaucratic Stalinism got rid of the post-feudal free lunch of land rent, monopoly rent, interest and financial or property-price gains, its bureaucratic overhead overpowered the economy in the end. Russia fell. The question is whether the Anglo-American brand of
finance capitalism will follow suit from its own internal contradictions.

The flaws in the U.S. economy are tragic because they are so intractable, embedded as they are in the very core of post-feudal Western economies. This is what Greek tragedy is about: a tragic flaw that dooms the hero from the outset. The main flaw embedded in our own economy is rising debt in excess of the ability to pay is part of a larger flaw: the financial free lunch that property and financial claims extract in excess of a corresponding cost as measured in labor effort or an equitably shared tax burden (the classical theory of economic rent). Like land seizure and insider privatization deals, such wealth increasingly can be inherited, stolen or obtained by political corruption. Wealth and revenue extracted via today¹s finance capitalism avoids taxation, thereby receiving an actual fiscal subsidy as compared to tangible industrial investment and operating profit. Yet academics and the popular media treat these core flaws as 'exogenous,' that is, outside the realm of economics analysis.

Unfortunately for us ­ and for reformers trying to rescue our post-bubble economy the history of economic thought has been suppressed to give an impression that today¹s stripped-down, largely trivialized junk economics is the apex of Western social history. One would not realize from the present discussion that for the past few centuries a different canon of logic existed. Classical economists distinguished between earned income (wages and profits) and unearned income (land rent, monopoly rent and interest). The effect was to distinguish between wealth earned through
capital and enterprise that reflects labor effort, and unearned wealth from
appropriation of land and other natural resources, monopoly privileges
(including banking and money management) and inflationary asset-price 'capital' gains. But even the Progressive Era did not go much beyond seeking to purify industrial capitalism from the carry-overs of feudalism: land rent and monopoly rent stemming from military conquest, and financial exploitation by banks and (in America) Wall Street as the 'mother of trusts.'

What makes today's bubble different from previous ones is that instead of being organized by governments as a stratagem to dispose of their public debt by creating or privatizing monopolies to sell off for payment in government bonds, the United States and other nations today are going deeply into debt simply to pay bankers for bad loans. The economy is being sacrificed to reward finance, instead of finance subordinating and channeling finance to promote economic growth and lower the economy-wide cost structure to remain viable. Interest-bearing debt is weighing down the economy and causing debt deflation by diverting saving into debt payments
instead of capital investment. Under this condition 'saving' is not the solution to today's economic shrinkage; it is part of the problem. In contrast to the personal hoarding of Keynes's day, the problem is the financial sector's extractive power as creditor instead of clear the slate by wiping out the economy's bad-debt overhang in the historically normal way, by a wave of bankruptcy.

Today, the financial sector is translating its affluence (at taxpayer expense), into the political power to pry yet more public infrastructure away from state and local communities and from the public domain at the national level, Thatcher- and Blair-style as it is sold off to absentee buyers-on-credit to pay off public debt (while cutting taxes on wealth yet further). No one remembers the cry for what Keynes called 'euthanasia of the rentier.' We have entered the most oppressive rentier epoch since feudal European times. Instead of providing basic infrastructure services at cost or subsidized rates to lower the national cost structure and thus make it more affordable ­ and internationally competitiv ­ the economy is being turned into a collection of tollbooths How strange that this year's transitory wave of post-bubble books fails to place the financialization of the U.S. and global economies in this long-term context.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Turnbull attacks Ruddnet

Using the unquestioned dogma of neo-classical economics, that if the private sector can't finance it or make a profit out of it, it should not be built, Opposition Leader Turnbull criticises the Ruddnet:

MALCOLM Turnbull has likened Kevin Rudd's $43 billion high-speed broadband plan to the failed business case for Sydney's Cross City Tunnel, which cost nearly $1 billion to build but went broke, with shareholders losing their investment.

The Opposition Leader writes in The Australian today that just as the tunnel venture went broke because of "wildly optimistic" traffic assumptions, the Prime Minister's failure to research the business case for the broadband venture could produce a catastrophe for taxpayers.


Time for a paradigm shift: the function of government is to build infrastructure, and it should not be operated for a profit. Its purpose is to provide a benefit.

Rudd proposes to fund the Ruddnet by issuing bonds but in my view a better funding method would be rating land values. Infrastructure creates land value and thus the economic surplus or economic rent is the ideal and natural source of funding for infrastructure investment. Pricing of the service once built should follow what's been called 'marginal cost pricing', ie price it cheaply or even make it free to encourage maximum usage and takeup. All of this of course is nearly the exact opposite of the neo-liberal, neo-classical cult of "privatize and deregulate and let the market supply the cargo" (in spite of the fact as Turnbull admits in regards both to the Ruddnet and the cross city tunnel) that the cargo will not arrive.

Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Broadband Infrastruture: Govt does the right thing!

A lot of people seem to be responding with surprise the Federal Government's announcement that it will itself build a nationwide Fibre to the Premises (FTTP) broadband network.

It's telling for me that one of the most basic functions of government - to build and maintain physical infrastructure that is in the nature of a natural monopoly - is so neglected that the right decision comes as a surprise. Neo-classical economics (which declares the cargo cult of the market will provide) and neo-liberalism (which loudly says privatize and let the chaos of the market rule) have conspired with both major parties to nearly eliminate Government's basic role.

T-Cwp infrastructure (transport, communications, water, power) can and should be funded by land revenue as well. See how much 'property values' are worth when every bridge has been bombed, every road potholed, every telecommunications exchange, power generation and water sanitation plant destroyed as we did in Iraq.

That's one thing that could be said for neoliberal/neoconservative ideology: they dont know how to fund and build infrastructure but they sure know how to wreck it.

One can compare this decision to the brain dead decision of earlier years to allow 'competing' telecommunications companies to run two cables down some streets but none down others. Almost incredible that such stupidity would be allowed to actually materialize, but it did.

The government's decision raises some rather obvious issues: it was a mistake to privatize Telstra (the monopoloy carrier) in the first place; so why do they insist of also privatizing the new network once it is built? Time to re-embrace public ownership. Infrastructure is not for 'profit', its for public benefit. The charges should the least that can be done to build and maintain the network to the desired standard. And instead of selling 'Aussie Infrastructure Bonds' to finance it (not a bad idea in itself), why not raise revenue from land rates? (see above re property values). Here's the slogan: T-CWP by LR.

There's a deal of interesting commentary on this decision, mostly positive:

Crikey: Packer would have stopped it

End of the Copper Monopoly

Australia to lead the world at something good

Shiny New Network

Government got it right

The people on whirlpool have got some interesting comments

Monday, April 06, 2009

Does the US Face G20 Mutiny? Financing the Empire

By MICHAEL HUDSON

I am travelling in Europe for three weeks to discuss the global financial crisis with government officials, politicians and labor leaders. What is most remarkable is how differently the financial problem is perceived over here. It’s like being in another economic universe, not just another continent.

The U.S. media are silent about the most important topic policy makers are discussing here (and I suspect in Asia too): how to protect their countries from three inter-related dynamics:

(1) the surplus dollars pouring into the rest of the world for yet further financial speculation and corporate takeovers;

(2) the fact that central banks are obliged to recycle these dollar inflows to buy U.S. Treasury bonds to finance the federal U.S. budget deficit; and most important (but most suppressed in the U.S. media,

(3) the military character of the U.S. payments deficit and the domestic federal budget deficit.

Strange as it may seem – and irrational as it would be in a more logical system of world diplomacy – the “dollar glut” is what finances America’s global military build-up. It forces foreign central banks to bear the costs of America’s expanding military empire – effective “taxation without representation.” Keeping international reserves in “dollars” means recycling their dollar inflows to buy U.S. Treasury bills – U.S. government debt issued largely to finance the military.

To date, countries have been as powerless to defend themselves against the fact that this compulsory financing of U.S. military spending is built into the global financial system. Neoliberal economists applaud this as “equilibrium,” as if it is part of economic nature and “free markets” rather than bare-knuckle diplomacy wielded with increasing aggressiveness by U.S. officials. The mass media chime in, pretending that recycling the dollar glut to finance U.S. military spending is “showing their faith in U.S. economic strength” by sending “their” dollars here to “invest.” It is as if a choice is involved, not financial and diplomatic compulsion to choose merely between “Yes” (from China, reluctantly), “Yes, please” (from Japan and the European Union) and “Yes, thank you” (Britain, Georgia and Australia).

It is not “foreign faith in the U.S. economy” that leads foreigners to “put their money here.” That’s a silly cartoon of a more sinister dynamic. The “foreigners” in question are not consumers buying U.S. exports, nor are they private-sector “investors” buying U.S. stocks and bonds. The largest and most important foreign entities putting “their money” here are central banks, and it is not “their money” at all. They are sending back the dollars that foreign exporters and other recipients turn over to their central banks for domestic currency.

When the U.S. payments deficit pumps dollars into foreign economies, these banks are being given little option except to buy U.S. Treasury bills and bonds – which the Treasury spends on financing an enormous, hostile military build-up to encircle the major dollar-recyclers – China, Japan and Arab OPEC oil producers. Yet these governments are forced to recycle dollar inflows in a way that funds U.S. military policies in which they have no say in formulating, and which threaten them more and more belligerently. That is why China and Russia took the lead in forming the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) a few years ago.

Here in Europe there is a clear awareness that the U.S. payments deficit is much larger than just the trade deficit. One need merely look at Table 5 of the U.S. balance-of-payments data compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and published by the Dept. of Commerce in its Survey of Current Business to see that the deficit does not stem merely from consumers buying more imports than the United States exports as the financial sector de-industrializes its economy. U.S. imports are now plunging as the economy shrinks and consumers are now finding themselves obliged to pay down the debts they have taken on.

Congress has told foreign investors in the largest dollar holder, China, not to buy anything except perhaps used-car dealerships and maybe more packaged mortgages and Fannie Mae stock – the equivalent of Japanese investors being steered into spending $1 billion for Rockefeller Center, on which they subsequently took a 100 per cent loss, and Saudi investment in Citigroup. That’s the kind of “international equilibrium” that U.S. officials love to see. “CNOOK go home” is the motto when it comes to serious attempts by foreign governments and their sovereign wealth funds (central bank departments trying to figure out what to do with their dollar glut) to make direct investments in American industry.

So we are left with the extent to which the U.S. payments deficit stems from military spending. The problem is not only the war in Iraq, now being extended to Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is the expensive build-up of U.S. military bases in Asian, European, post-Soviet and Third World countries. The Obama administration has promised to make the actual amount of this military spending more transparent. That presumably means publishing a revised set of balance of payments figures as well as domestic federal budget statistics.

The military overhead is much like a debt overhead, extracting revenue from the economy. In this case it is to pay the military-industrial complex, not merely Wall Street banks and other financial institutions. The domestic federal budget deficit does not stem only from “priming the pump” to give away enormous sums to create a new financial oligarchy. It contains an enormous and rapidly growing military component.

So Europeans and Asians see U.S. companies pumping more and more dollars into their economies. Not just to buy their exports in excess of providing them with goods and services in return; not just to buy their companies and “commanding heights” of privatized public enterprises without giving them reciprocal rights to buy important U.S. companies (remember the U.S. turn-down of China’s attempt to buy into the U.S. oil distribution business); not just to buy foreign stocks, bonds and real estate. The U.S. media somehow neglect to mention that the U.S. government is spending hundreds of billions of dollars abroad – not only in the Near East for direct combat, but to build enormous military bases to encircle the rest of the world, to install radar systems, guided missile systems and other forms of military coercion, including the “color revolutions” that have been funded – and are still being funded – all around the former Soviet Union.

Pallets of shrink-wrapped $100 bills adding up to tens of millions of the dollars at a time have become familiar “visuals” on some TV broadcasts, but the link is not made with U.S. military and diplomatic spending and foreign central-bank dollar holdings, which are reported simply as “wonderful faith in the U.S. economic recovery” and presumably the “monetary magic” being worked by Wall Street’s Tim Geithner at Treasury and Helicopter Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve.

Here’s the problem: The Coca Cola company recently tried to buy China’s largest fruit-juice producer and distributor. China already holds nearly $2 trillion in U.S. securities – way more than it needs or can use, inasmuch as the United States government refuses to let it buy meaningful U.S. companies. If the U.S. buyout would have been permitted to go through, this would have confronted China with a dilemma: Choice #1 would be to let the sale go through and accept payment in dollars, reinvesting them in what the U.S. Treasury tells it to do – U.S. Treasury bonds yielding about 1 per cent. China would take a capital loss on these when U.S. interest rates rise or when the dollar declines as the United States alone is pursuing expansionary Keynesian policies in an attempt to enable the U.S. economy to carry its debt overhead.

Choice #2 is not to recycle the dollar inflows. This would lead the renminbi to rise against the dollar, thereby eroding China’s export competitiveness in world markets. So China chose a third way, which brought U.S. protests. It turned the sale of its tangible company for merely “paper” U.S. dollars – which went with the “choice” to fund further U.S. military encirclement of the Shanghai Cooperative Agreement. The only people who seem not to be drawing this connection are the American mass media, and hence public. I can assure you from personal experience, it is being drawn here in Europe. (Here’s a good diplomatic question to discuss: Which will be the first European country besides Russia to join the S.C.O.?)

Academic textbooks have nothing to say about how “equilibrium” in foreign capital movements – speculative as well as for direct investment – is infinite as far as the U.S. economy is concerned. The U.S. economy can create dollars freely, now that they no longer are convertible into gold or even into purchases of U.S. companies, inasmuch as America remains the world’s most protected economy. It alone is permitted to protect its agriculture by import quotas, having “grandfathered” these into world trade rules half a century ago. Congress refuses to let “sovereign wealth” funds invest in important U.S. sectors.

So we are confronted with the fact that the U.S. Treasury prefers foreign central banks to keep on funding its domestic budget deficit, which means financing the cost of America’s war in the Near East and encirclement of foreign countries with rings of military bases. The more “capital outflows” U.S. investors spend to buy up foreign economies –the most profitable sectors, where the new U.S. owners can extract the highest monopoly rents – the more funds end up in foreign central banks to support America’s global military build-up. No textbook on political theory or international relations has suggested axioms to explain how nations act in a way so adverse to their own political, military and economic interests. Yet this is just what has been happening for the past generation.

So the ultimate question turns out to be what countries can do to counter this financial attack. A Basque labor union asked me whether I thought that controlling speculative capital movements would ensure that the financial system would act in the public interest. Or is outright nationalization necessary to better develop the real economy?

It is not simply a problem of “regulation” or “control of speculative capital movements.” The question is how nations can act as real nations, in their own interest rather than being roped into serving whatever the American government decides is in America’s interest.

Any country trying to do what the United States has done for the past 150 years is accused of being “socialist” – and this from the most anti-socialist economy in the world, except when it calls bailouts for its banks “socialism for the rich,” a.k.a. financial oligarchy. This rhetorical inflation almost leaves no alternative but outright nationalization of credit as a basic public utility.

Of course, the word “nationalization” has become a synonym for bailing out the largest and most reckless banks from their bad loans, and bailing out hedge funds and non-bank counterparties for losses on “casino capitalism,” gambling on derivatives that AIG and other insurers or players on the losing side of these gambles are unable to pay. Bailout in this form is not nationalization in the traditional sense of the term – bringing credit creation and other basic financial functions back into the public domain. It is the opposite. It prints new government bonds to turn over – along with self-regulatory power – to the financial sector, blocking the citizenry from taking back these functions.

Framing the issue as a choice between democracy and oligarchy turns the question into one of who will control the government doing the regulation and “nationalizing.” If it is done by a government whose central bank and major congressional committees dealing with finance are run by Wall Street, this will not help steer credit into productive uses. It will merely continue the Greenspan-Paulson-Geithner era of more and larger free lunches for their financial constituencies.

The financial oligarchy’s idea of “regulation” is to make sure that deregulators are installed in the key positions and given only a minimal skeleton staff and little funding. Despite Alan Greenspan’s announcement that he has come to see the light and realizes that self-regulation doesn’t work, the Treasury is still run by a Wall Street official and the Fed is run by a lobbyist for Wall Street. To lobbyists the real concern isn’t ideology as such – it’s naked self-interest for their clients. They may seek out well-meaning fools, especially prestigious figures from academia. But these are only front men, headed as they are by the followers of Milton Friedman at the University of Chicago. Such individuals are put in place as “gate-keepers” of the major academic journals to keep out ideas that do not well serve the financial lobbyists.

This pretence for excluding government from meaningful regulation is that finance is so technical that only someone from the financial “industry” is capable of regulating it. To add insult to injury, the additional counter-intuitive claim is made that a hallmark of democracy is to make the central bank “independent” of elected government. In reality, of course, that is just the opposite of democracy. Finance is the crux of the economic system. If it is not regulated democratically in the public interest, then it is “free” to be captured by special interests. So this becomes the oligarchic definition of “market freedom.”

The danger is that governments will let the financial sector determine how “regulation” will be applied. Special interests seek to make money from the economy, and the financial sector does this in an extractive way. That is its marketing plan. Finance today is acting in a way that de-industrializes economies, not builds them up. The “plan” is austerity for labor, industry and all sectors outside of finance, as in the IMF programs imposed on hapless Third World debtor countries. The experience of Iceland, Latvia and other “financialized” economies should be examined as object lessons, if only because they top the World Bank’s ranking of countries in terms of the “ease of doing business.”

The only meaningful regulation can come from outside the financial sector. Otherwise, countries will suffer what the Japanese call “descent from heaven”: regulators are selected from the ranks of bankers and their “useful idiots.” Upon retiring from government they return to the financial sector to receive lucrative jobs, “speaking engagements” and kindred paybacks. Knowing this, they regulate in favor of financial special interests, not that of the public at large.

The problem of speculative capital movements goes beyond drawing up a set of specific regulations. It concerns the scope of national government power. The International Monetary Fund’s Articles of Agreement prevent countries from restoring the “dual exchange rate” systems that many retained down through the 1950s and even into the ‘60s. It was widespread practice for countries to have one exchange rate for goods and services (sometimes various exchange rates for different import and export categories) and another for “capital movements.” Under American pressure, the IMF enforced the pretence that there is an “equilibrium” rate that just happens to be the same for goods and services as it is for capital movements. Governments that did not buy into this ideology were excluded from membership in the IMF and World Bank – or were overthrown.

The implication today is that the only way a nation can block capital movements is to withdraw from the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization (WTO). For the first time since the 1950s this looks like a real possibility, thanks to worldwide awareness of how the U.S. economy is glutting the global economy with surplus “paper” dollars – and U.S. intransigence at stopping its free ride. From the U.S. vantage point, this is nothing less than an attempt to curtail its international military program.

Michael Hudson is a former Wall Street economist. A Distinguished Research Professor at University of Missouri, Kansas City (UMKC), he is the author of many books, including Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire (new ed., Pluto Press, 2002) He can be at: mh@michael-hudson.com